During my time in Israel in 2011, a weekly ritual was taking the bus from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. I just loved walking around the old city of Jerusalem: Temple Mount, Jaffa Gate, Damascus Gate, Via Dolorosa, the Christian, Muslim, Jewish and Armenian quarters of the old city. There is something about the city that is captivating. I don’t belong to any of the Abrahamic faiths, but being a lifelong student of history, the city held a fascination for me that can only be felt. It gave me an opportunity to look at things from a very different perspective.
Jerusalem is a place where emotions run high, and passions boil over. I have seen Christians of all denominations, enact Christ’s passion along the Via Dolorosa, Jews in a state of trance and seemingly hypnotized at the Western Wall and throngs of Muslim believers chanting at the sight of Al-Aqsa mosque. For the people of three faiths that see Jerusalem at the core of their belief, the divine resides here. Jerusalem is both terrestrial and celestial at the same and prophets and patriarchs: Abraham, David, Jesus, and Muhammad had trodden here.
Sadly, this contested place, at the center of the universe for three faiths has seen unending struggle. Massacres, wars, terrorism, bombings, and sieges have become a part of the city’s DNA, from the Babylonian invasions, Roman conquest and destruction of the temple, the crusades and to the six-day war of the twentieth century. The most recent tragic manifestation of this was the last week’s barbaric attack by Hamas killing hundreds of women and children. While not targeting the city, this operation was called, “Al-Aqsa Flood”, giving it a religious tone and putting Jerusalem squarely at the center again.
Having followed the region for a while, from my perspective the current events have no simple explanation. Yes, the incident is but a small part of the broader complex mosaic of Israel-Palestine conflict, but two factors that come to my mind are Geography and Geopolitics. To try and grasp what happened and what it might lead to is trying to understand these interlinked and intimately connected aspects of crucial importance. Geography affects every element of the geopolitical context and in many ways, the geography of a place defines it. It sets the tone for the narrative used by different players and justifies the actions associated. For Israel and Jerusalem, it is the power of the place, situated in the “Shatter Belt” of Middle East, promised and holy land for three faiths and directly in the crosshairs of a raging Sunni-Shia cold war of decades between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Sacred Geography – The Much Too Promised Land
Whose Land is it anyway? The best explanation for this never-ending contest was by Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat who was an integral part of the peace negotiations between Israeli’s and Palestinians for two decades.
· The Much Too Promised Land:
o This was promised to the Jewish people by their god.
o For Christians and Muslims, their messengers and sons of god spent time here and a place where salvation was promised.
o British promised the same land to both the Jews and the Arabs during WW1.
o The UN promised this land to Israelis and Palestinians in 1948.
o The United States, through the UN, promised a land for peace process to both warring parties in 1967.
· Israel is the promised land for the Jewish people. According to the Old Testament or the Hebrew Bible, Tanakh, the Promised Land is the land that God promised and subsequently gave to Abraham and several more times to his descendants. After, Moses led the Jews back to the promised land from captivity in Egypt, it was divided among the twelve tribes of Israel.
· The Temple Mount is the most significant holy site for Jews because, their two ancient temples stood there, first one destroyed by the Babylonians in 586 BC, and the second, burnt and razed by the Romans in year 70 AD. A section of the Second Temple, the Western Wall is still standing and is the most sacred site for the Jewish prayer. According to Jewish tradition, Temple Mount is the location where God collected dust to create Adam, the first human being. It is the location where Abraham almost sacrificed his son Isaac to affirm his faith.
· Muslims also term the Temple Mount the Haram al-Sharif, the Noble Sanctuary, where the Al-Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the Rock are located. Prophet Muhammed, according to tradition is said to have ascended to heaven from the Noble Sanctuary. The area is also the third most important site in Islam, after Mecca and Medina.
· For Christians, the site is very significant as Jesus is said to have taught here, prayed here and according to some people got his Brit Milah (circumcision) and then his Bar mitzvah. Jesus’s disciples constantly went to the Temple Mount to pray, and Peter is believed to have cured sick people here. The Church writings are full of importance of the Temple Mount.
Post the creation of independent state of Israel in 1948, East Jerusalem and the Temple Mount were under Jordanian administration and the Jews had no access to the area. After the six-day war in 1967, Israel took East Jerusalem and Temple Mount came under their control. Area around the Western Wall were cleared and this became the Jewish place of worship. But the Muslim institution of Waqf managed the Temple Mount and Al-Aqsa Mosque. Jews and Christians are largely not permitted to pray on the Temple Mount, and there are severe restrictions for non-Muslim visitors to enter the compound.
This status-quo was maintained well for most part, though an occasional flare-up was part of life. But things have started changing the past few years as Israel came to be ruled by successive right-wing coalitions. There has been clamour among the hardline orthodox Jews to build the “Third Temple”, and that means taking control of the Temple Mount.
Some of the key incidents leading up to the current crisis:
· The new set of confrontations started on April 12, 2021, when Israeli police started imposing restrictions around the Damascus Gate, which is usually a popular gathering spot for Palestinian protests during the month of Ramadan. A few days later, they limited the number of people who can be admitted for prayers at Al- Aqsa Mosque. Despite the restrictions and a 10,000-head limit, several tens of thousands of Palestinians made unsuccessful attempts to enter Al-Aqsa for prayers. Since then, tensions have been running high and there have been many violent confrontations between Israeli police and Palestinians.
· The Israeli efforts to dispose of the protests ahead of the Jerusalem Day rally conducted by the Israeli right-wing parties turned into a standoff when Palestinian protesters took shelter at the Al-Aqsa Mosque. Israeli police swiftly took over the Al-Aqsa Mosque along with the Temple Mount. This provoked widespread protests and violent clashes and soon deteriorated into a situation where Hamas started firing rockets from Gaza and IDF retaliated with airstrikes.
· Again, on May 29, 2022, as part of Jerusalem Day celebrations, the “Flags March” took place in Jerusalem in which an estimated 70,000 Israeli marchers entered the Old City of Jerusalem through the Damascus Gate and the Muslim Quarter. More than 2,600 Jews toured the Temple Mount during the day, while young Palestinians threw rocks in protest and barricaded themselves inside the al-Aqsa Mosque. In response, Israeli authorities responded using rubber bullets, sound grenades, and pepper spray, injuring several Palestinians.
· In September 2022, Hamas started disseminating antisemitic materials and advocated violence making extensive use of traditional and social media channels. Prior to the start of Jewish festival of Rosh Hashana, Hamas along with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine released a joint statement calling on Palestinians to support Jerusalem and al-Aqsa Mosque through popular resistance and warned of a “religious war” over Israeli actions at the Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount.
· After the new right-wing government of Netanyahu took power early in 2023, Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir managed to stir up a controversy with his 15-minute visit to the Temple Mount. He tweeted a picture of himself at the Temple Mount, with a message: "The Israeli government of which I am a member will not surrender to a vile organization of murderers. The Temple Mount is open to all and if Hamas thinks that if it threatens me, that will deter me, they had better understand that times have changed. There is a government in Jerusalem."
Provocations, clashes, accusations, and unrest continued for the rest of 2023, but they by in themselves or just the issue of Temple Mount would probably not have led to “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood”. Enter Geopolitics!
The Revenge of Geopolitics
Let me start by providing a larger context for the Middle East on a broader canvas of Sunni-Shia schism. What started after the assassination of the fourth Caliph, Ali was turbocharged after the Battle of Karbala in 680 AD., where Imam Hussein, grandson of Ali was killed in a battle with the Umayyad army. The schism has been an integral part of the Muslim world for close to a millennium, but has had pronounced impact in Middle East, after Safavid Persia made Shi’ism to be the official religion of the empire in early 16th century. This brought them into direct conflict with their neighbours, the Sunni Ottomans. Post WW2, the region saw the ascendancy of Pahlavi Iran and Wahhabi Saudi Arabia in the region as the flag bearers of Shia and Sunni mantles. While the tensions were palpable between the countries, it never led to outright hostility and both the countries even cooperated on certain issues.
1979 was a pivotal year that changed the dynamics and pushed the region into a bitter contest for hegemony between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In 1979, three major events took place: the Iranian Revolution, the siege of the Holy Mosque in Mecca by Saudi zealots and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While all three were independent events, their aftereffects intersected noxiously to upend the status-quo. The Iranians tried to further Islamic revolutionary ideology across the region, while Saudi’s rattled by the events in Mecca, started funding the spread of radical brand of Wahhabi Islam. These collided to start with in Afghanistan, the first battleground for Jihad in modern times and then played over the next four decades in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and most catastrophically in the matter of Israel and Palestine. Iran has been the torch bearer for the Palestinian cause and along with the Shiite militant group Hezbollah, has vowed to wipe Isarel off the map. Hamas, though a Sunni group is supported by Iran and received significant training and resources from them. This Saudi-Iran rivalry descended into an ever-greater competition for Islamic legitimacy through religious and cultural domination. It unleashed sectarian identities and killings, which in turn led to the rise of militancy and the rise of cultural intolerance in parallel, feeding into each other.
So, what happened over the last weekend in Israel and Hamas’s action needs to be looked against this Iranian quest for regional leadership, as a champion of Palestinian cause and some recent developments in the region involving Israel and other Arab countries, mediated by the United States.
· In August and September 2020, Israel signed Abraham accords with UAE and Bahrain. As part of the dual agreements, both the UAE and Bahrain recognized Israel's sovereignty, enabling the establishment of full diplomatic relations. This was followed up in December 2020, when the Israel–Morocco normalization agreement was signed.
· A Saudi and Israeli deal to normalize relationship was close to being finalized as of last week. In exchange for the establishment of formal relations with Saudi Arabia, Israel would transfer a meaningful percentage of the remaining Israeli-controlled land in the West Bank (known as Area C) to the Palestinian Authority and freeze both the expansion of settlements and the legalization of illegal settlements. On September 26, Saudi Arabia appointed its first ambassador to the Palestinian Authority, amidst the negotiations. The Saudi crown prince in an interview with Fox News said, negotiators were getting “closer to an agreement,” which he described as “the biggest historical deal since the Cold War.” Netanyahu confirmed the remarks and added that the two countries were on the cusp of “a historic peace.”
· According to some astute observers of the region, MBS was hoping to extract concessions for the Palestinians in the West Bank, so that they can limit the turmoil in West Bank, which might further weaken the Palestinian Authority and strengthen Hamas. The strong relations Hamas has with Iran deepen the Saudi concerns and the last thing the Saudis want is for Hamas to exploit this situation and expand its control beyond the Gaza Strip, which would work to the advantage of Iran. The deal with Israel provides stability to the region and also ease life for the Palestinians.
What Hamas has done in the past few days is far more extreme than anything it had done before. By deliberately targeting women and children, so visibly and on such a scale and by taking hostages, they have ensured that the reaction from Israel will be severe and inflict huge suffering. Considering that Gaza is surrounded by an Israel with vastly superior weaponry, this would seem to be irrational and suicidal at the least. What could possibly motivate Hamas to do this? Is it safe to assume that Iran was indirectly responsible for this?
We cannot be sure yet, but what follows is conjecture and is in the realm of probable, but nevertheless are intelligent and educated guesses.
· On Sunday, 9th October, Wall Street Journal reported that Hamas senior commanders have acknowledged the support and approval of Iran for this operation. The preparations for this were on since August and Iranian Revolutionary Guards had trained Hamas fighters.
· The Abraham accords and the proposed Israel and Saudi reproachment, posed a clear and present danger to Iranian position in the region directly and in-turn to Hamas’s legitimacy. For both Hamas and Iran's leadership who were dedicated to eradication of Israel, Israels normalisation of relations with regional Arab countries and especially Saudi Arabia is humiliating and raises questions on their purpose. This attack is precisely the kind of destructive operation Iran has been planning for years. In an interview with Lester Holt of NBC news last month, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said, “We are against any bilateral relations between our regional countries and the Zionist regime,” and added, “We believe that the Zionist regime is intending to normalize these bilateral relations with the regional countries to create security for itself in the region.
· The agreements were an existential threat to Iran’s vision of a ‘Shiite crescent’, unbroken chain of Islamist theocracies stretching from Beirut to the Persian Gulf. Israel was the only democracy in the region and the Arab nations were finding a common cause with them and offering an alternative by building on the successful model of the Abraham Accords. This was a calculated and ruthless attack, designed to provoke a strong reprisal despite the suffering it would inflict on Palestinians. But that would aggravate the anti-Israel public opinion in Arab countries, making it difficult to continue with diplomatic relations with Israel. If the public opinion turns sour, it will even provoke Egypt and Turkey to discontinue their ties with Israel.
· At this moment in time, Israel and US are considered to be on weak wickets, given their internal political turmoil. This presented an opportunity for Iran to take advantage of the situation and strengthen its position by provoking Israel and US to act against them. Iran is no longer isolated or vulnerable as it was in the past. It has now built closer ties with both Russia and China and expect strong support from them.
What Comes Next?
We are probably navigating uncharted waters. During my stay in Israel, if there is one sentiment, I had come across the entire society, it was “Never Again”. Millenia of persecution and the Holocaust have left a very deep scar on the Jewish psyche. This attack I am sure is seen as a big challenge to their very existence and their response will be beyond anything we have seen before.
According to Bloomberg today, this latest conflict has already seen more deaths in Israel than any for the past decade and a half.
As I write this, BBC reports that, Israel is amassing its troops on the Gaza border. Will this be a full-blown invasion of Gaza? Let us hope not, as that would mean a vicious downward spiral. Some observers feel, “Israelis are well within their rights to erase Hamas, the organization that committed these atrocities, from the Gaza Strip”, but that would ignite an inferno that could spread beyond the region and into the wider world.
All the Gaza conflagrations of the past have stayed local. This one might get very nasty for both parties, but there is no reason to believe that the broader region or the world will get dragged into this, unless there is some irrefutable proof that Iran was behind this, and Israel decides to attack Iran. John Authers of Bloomberg highlighted an interesting visualization from Independent Strategy about Israels perimeters and had this to say about the war staying local: “Unless Israel decides that it has to draw its security boundary much wider than its current borders. At this point, an Israeli response involving Gaza is inevitable, and further conflict involving Lebanon looks very likely. It would have very little impact on the politics of nations further afield. Should Israel choose to involve Iran, that would be different; and any extension to involve Russia could change the world.
The United States has pledged its unwavering support to Israel and has also warned off Iran from misadventures. The US has sent to the East Mediterranean its brand-new nuclear powered aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, which sits at the center of a carrier strike group that includes not only an aircraft wing of 80 planes, but five guided-missile ships: four destroyers and a cruiser. That is some fire power and a clear signal to Iran. Back-off and don’t try to take advantage of this moment.
Let us hope this conflict does not spiral into something uncontrollable. At the American University in Washington DC, we students for Global and Middle Eastern Affairs used to joke:
· This is not Las Vegas. What happens in Middle East, does not stay in Middle East!
Well articulated analysis about recent events. Complexity of situation at hand demands more than an emotional response from both sides.
Does Hamas represent all of Gaza's 3.2 million residents living in just 365 sq km? Families and children that are struggling without food, water, or medical supplies.
Who are Israel and the Unites States truly aiming at?
Are these only militants? Who are the casualties we see?
How can this be justified?
They're human beings – individuals, children!
The conflict may or may not spiral but the hypocrisy certainly has!